The latest information on pearl farming in Tahiti.
04/01/2026
Tahiti, January 3, 2026 - In the third quarter of 2025, the Polynesian economy proved more resilient than expected to the shock of global price fluctuations. Supported by lower oil import costs, strong domestic demand, and a recovery in investment, local economic activity remains generally dynamic. However, on the export front the outlook is deteriorating: falling prices for pearls and fish are reducing overseas sales and highlighting the structural fragility of the country’s external trade.
According to the latest figures published by the Institut de la Statistique en Polynésie Française - ISPF -, the trade balance appears relatively stable in the third quarter of 2025. The total value of civilian imports remained almost unchanged compared with the same period in 2024, posting a slight decline of 0.2%. At the same time, local exports fell sharply, recording a decrease of 15%. This apparent stability nevertheless masks deeper changes within the economy.
The first determining factor is the collapse of the energy bill. Imports of petroleum products dropped by 53% in value and 40% in volume year-on-year. This decline is explained by lower global prices and by a 22% decrease in the average price per kilogram. Without this energy component, the overall value of civilian imports would have been clearly trending upward. Indeed, excluding energy products, all major categories of imports increased.
This development reflects a domestic economy that remains dynamic. Imports intended for businesses rose by 12%, driven in particular by a 24% increase in capital goods, a sign of renewed productive investment. Even if certain exceptional transactions may have amplified this increase, the overall trend remains positive.
Household consumption is following the same trajectory. Imports destined for households increased by 9%, particularly in the agri-food sector where the rise reached 14% in value. Over the first nine months of the year, domestic demand thus confirms a growth trajectory.
Local exports, however, are showing signs of fragility. The 15% decline recorded in the third quarter is mainly explained by the drop in the value of raw cultured pearl exports. Despite an increase in export volumes, their value fell by 19% due to a 28% drop in prices year-on-year.
The fishing sector experienced a similar trend. Fish exports declined by 30% in value, also penalized by falling prices, which dropped by an average of 19%. The strong dependence on the U.S. market, which absorbs more than three-quarters of Polynesian fish exports, increases this vulnerability to market fluctuations.
Some sectors nevertheless managed to perform well. Copra oil saw the value of its exports double, supported by rising prices on international markets. Noni also recorded growth over the year.
However, these performances remain insufficient to offset the decline of the two historical pillars of Polynesian exports: pearls and fishing.
Since the beginning of the year, local exports have nevertheless remained up by around 10%. The slowdown observed in the third quarter therefore appears relatively recent. It nevertheless represents a warning signal for the country’s economy.
While French Polynesia is currently benefiting from a lower energy bill and strong domestic demand, its dependence on a few export products exposed to fluctuations in international markets remains significant. The economic situation in 2025 therefore highlights the need to diversify export sectors in order to strengthen the resilience of the Polynesian economy.